Covid-19 : An Economic Catastrophe

As South America becomes the epicentre of Covid-19, we decided to estimate the downside risk to GDP caused by Covid-19 by running a simulation based on duration and severity of lockdowns across countries.

Our analysis makes for sobering reading. Our central case predicts an average drop in GDP of 13% across South American economies, representing an economic cost of ca. $400 billion.

The social and political consequences of a sharp and prolonged downturn are yet to be fully felt, but they will be dire.

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