As South America becomes the epicentre of Covid-19, we decided to take a stab at predicting the Covid-19 impact on GDP for 2020.
Our analysis makes for sobering reading. Our base case predicts an average drop in GDP of 13% across South American economies, representing an economic cost of ca. $400 billion.
Furthermore the economic cost can still ramp up pretty fast and our current worst-case scenario, which is showing an average GDP drop of ca. 22%, is not completely out of reach.
The social and political consequences of a sharp and prolonged downturn are yet to be fully felt, but they will be dire.